The truth is, for three candidates, this Saturday in South Carolina is Judgment Day. It's high stakes, to say the least. How these three candidates place in South Carolina will either slingshot them into frontrunner status, or will completely torpedo any hopes they had of winning the nomination.
Mitt Romney: This guy is in trouble. Big trouble. Yes, he won Michigan, but that was pretty much a gimme. His problem is he didn't win New Hampshire, he won't win South Carolina, and he won't win Florida, which leads him into Super Tuesday on a downhill slide. Losing South Carolina just exposes his weakness south of the Mason-Dixon line, and since apparently he's not that strong in the North either, he's toast. End of story. Mitt has cash (of his own!) enough to hang around and potshot the rest of the crowd, but he's just not going to be a player unless he finds a way to pull South Carolina out of his hat.
Mike Huckabee: A while back, I predicted Mike was headed for a fall and South Carolina may just be the day he walks off a cliff. Mr. Huckabee made a name for himself by winning Iowa, mainly through the evangelical influence and the fact he was a fresh face. South Carolina should be similar ground for him, but it's not working out quite the same way. Although he and McCain are pretty close in the polls, I think pretty much everybody would agree Huckabee is slipping. Right now, I can't point to a single (serious) Republican pundit that thinks Huckabee can win the White House, and that "Can't Win" mantra is taking hold. Also in play is the fact that a group of Huckabee supporters has recently been trying to "Swiftboat" John McCain. Although the group is not officially linked to the Huckabee organization, it's hard to argue they're not his guys - and smearing a genuine war hero doesn't play very well in South Carolina.
Fred Thompson: Fred has "doubled down" on South Carolina. This one is either going to make him, or break him. Fred is a favored southern son, his conservatism works well with South Carolina voters, and with Huckabee slipping, it's possible he could saunter through the back door and walk out with the primary. If he pulls that off, suddenly Fred Thompson is not just a candidate, he's a MOVEMENT that could roll through Super Tuesday and on to the nomination. On the other hand, if Fred does poorly in South Carolina, he's out.So, how will the race look after South Carolina? Let's consider a few scenarios... starting with the most likely...
Scenario #1 (70% chance of happening) McCain wins, Huckabee is a distant second, Romney and Thompson lag. This would clear up the race considerably. Thompson is gone, Romney is reduced to just hanging out with the REAL candidates, and everyone realizes Huckabee was just a "flavor of the month." It would be McCain vs. Giuliani the rest of the way. Although Giuliani has been off the radar for a while, don't forget... THAT WAS THE PLAN! Giuliani is counting on a great showing in the Sunshine State, and I think he'll get it.
Scenario #2 (20% chance of happening) Huckabee wins, McCain is a close second, Romney and Thompson lag. A result like this probably still wouldn't get Huckabee to the nomination, but it would legitimize his candidacy to the point he could probably stay in the thick of things. Right now, Huckabee is just a one-hit wonder who caught Iowa lightning in a bottle. If he wins, though, his coffers fill up and he'll have enough support to cause trouble on Super Tuesday.
Scenario #3 (10% chance of happening) Thompson wins or finishes a close second, McCain is next, while Huckabee falls back and Romney brings up the rear. This might actually happen, despite Thompson's late start, lack of fire in the belly, and current position in the polls. Thompson is surging as voters realize Huckabee is a flawed candidate - and that just might be enough to put him into contention. Should this actually come to pass, you can count on a dogfight the rest of the way. McCain vs. Giulinani vs. Thompson. Three heavyweights vying for the most powerful office on the planet. Now THAT would be a Super Tuesday.
3 comments:
A blog obviously written by a McCain supporter...pathetic. Freddie is for sure out after South Carolina, Rev. Chuckacheese is probably a do or die and won't last much longer after a loss here, but Romney can stand his own ground for a while. Romney will win Nevada and is in the running for Florida. You tend to forget that campaign money plays a factor in this also. America needs to quit voting for a brand name (McCain) and open their eyes. As an Arizonan, I can honestly say that McCain has done little to nothing in his 20 years plus in the senate for Arizona. It's highly possible he loses in Arizona for the primaries because Arizonans have grown tired of his "straight talk".
Sir, your analysis in the above article is HORRIBLE. Surely you are not expecting anyone who reads it to be taking you seriously. Do you??
You are plainly attempting to paint a picture of how you would WANT things to be and not how they actually are.
I suggest you save this article and come back and read it in a few months and we can all see what the real REALITY of the situation is and not your horrible projection.
Thanks for the comments... I'm actually a Thompson supporter, and as for my track record, maybe you should check the archives. A lot of what's being said now by other pundits was in my blog quite a while back. Thanks for looking
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