McCain's Road To The White House Runs Through Iraq

And then there were two.

Last week marked a turning point in the race for President of the United States. Hillary Clinton, by virtue of getting whupped in North Carolina and narrowly winning Indiana, has reached the terminal stages of her candidacy. Although her campaign may struggle on for a time, everyone (maybe even her) knows it's over. She's broke, she's been dismissed by the pundits, been removed from national polling data, and currently has about as much as relevance as John Edwards without the hair spray. Hillary may try any number of new strategies, identities, voices, pantsuits, or pitches, but delegate math is delegate math. She just can't win.

So now it's on to the main event. John McCAin vs. Barack Obama. The Maverick vs. the Audacity of Hope. The War Hero vs. The Ground Breaker. The Hawk vs. The Dove. The Grizzled Veteran vs. The Junior Senator. The Silent Generation vs. Generation X.

Let's examine the matchup.

In a presidential election, any number of factors are in play. For purposes of this piece, I'll simply go through those that seem most relevant to THIS specific election.

Political Idealogy: McCain = Conservative/moderate. Obama = Liberal.
For the past two decades or so, conservatism has been carrying the day. However, liberalism seems to be coming back into style... or at least it's not the dirty word it used to be. For this election, McCain touting conservatism will just remind people of the last eight years, and with Bush's approval at all-time lows, that's not a good thing. Advantage Obama.

Personal Charisma: Bill Clinton rode this one to two terms in the White House. John McCain can be a funny guy, but he's old, he can be grouchy, and he's not an inspiring speaker. Barack Obama has all of Bill Clinton's political tools minus the sleaze/skirt-chasing factor. Advantage Obama

Charged-Up Base: Voters excited about a candidacy can move elections. Barack Obama has almost a messianic following. John McCain... not so much. In fact, the conservative base (me included) really wishes somebody besides old Johnnie Mac was the nominee. Advantage Obama.

Economy: It's not as bad as the media would have you believe, but it sure ain't great. George W. Bush is taking the hit for this one, and by proxy, so is John McCain. Advantage Obama.

Public Expectations: Everybody seems to think it's the Year Of The Democrat. That bodes well for Obama, as everybody likes to associate themselves with a winner. It bodes badly for McCain - sometimes people that know they're going to lose don't even bother showing up (at the polls!) Advantage Obama.

The Iraq War: John McCain is a Hawk, plain and simple. He was for The Surge, and despite his silly attitude about Gitmo, he's in it to win. John McCain lived out the only war America lost in the Hanoi Hilton. He's seen firsthand what happens when America cuts and runs, and he's not about to let that happen again. Barack Obama is against the Iraq war and has been all along. If it were up to him, the troops would come home tomorrow - regardless of what that would do to Iraq and the Iraqi people.

And THAT may be the key to this election.

Lots of polls show that Americans think the war in Iraq was a mistake. Lots of polls show that Americans are against the war.

One question that never seems to get asked, though, is "Do Americans think we should pull out of the war immediately?"

I wonder why they never ask that one?

I suspect it's because the left wing (you can count the media in this group, by the way) wouldn't like the answer.

IMNSHO, Americans, as a whole, are compassionate and practical, and learn from their mistakes. Regarding the Iraq war, I would suggest that a majority of Americans believe the war was a mistake, but also hold a "we broke it, we have to fix it" attitude.

They understand that leaving Iraq now would cost hundreds of thousands of Iraqi lives. They understand that leaving Iraq now would display American weakness and embolden terrorists. They understand that The Surge is working, and that our fighting men and women deserve the time and latitude to finish their mission. They understand that a free and democratic Iraq will be one less place in which cruel despots can seize control and threaten the world.

And they understand the TRUE lessons of Vietnam.

That leaving Vietnam as we did set the stage for unimaginable cruelty, for the boat people who died at sea, for the ethnic cleansing, for the killing fields. That leaving Vietnam as we did cost millions of innocent lives. And they understand that those things must never be allowed to happen again.

And that's where John McCain has an opening.

The world is a dangerous place. John McCain can make a strong case that he is the candidate most able to keep America safe and to defeat the terrorists in Iraq and Afghanistan. The military strategy he advocated is working, and he wants to stay till the terrorists are dead and the job is done.

Barack Obama, however, operates on the belief that Americans want our troops out of Iraq and Afghanistan, as soon as possible, and no matter what. That kind of attitude was pervasive during the Vietnam War era. It's still prominent in liberal circles. It is not, however, as pervasive in America as a whole.

This goes against conventional (liberal, media-driven) wisdom, but it's my belief that John McCain holds the advantage in only one aspect of this general election - his stance on the Iraq war. And that may be enough.

The facts of the matter are these. The war in Iraq is unpopular.
The possibility of winning the war in Iraq, however... may just put John McCain in the White House.